Assessing the Risk of Extremist Violence

A new report published by the British Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats provides detail on several frameworks that are used to assess risks of extremist violence.

This directory has been assembled from frameworks that have been developed in recent years to assess aspects of extremist violence, a term used here to encompass terrorist violence that is framed by ideology and targeted violence that is framed by idiosyncratic beliefs.

Each of these frameworks was developed in a slightly different context, and optimised for a different purpose and group of users. The frameworks covered are: Extremist Risk Guidance (ERG22+), developed by the UK’s Prisons and Probation Service; Islamic Radicalization (IR-46), used by the Dutch National Police; Identifying Vulnerable People (IVP), developed out of open-source material on violent extremists; Multi-Level Guidelines (MLG Version 2), used in North America and Europe; Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) in use since 2015 in Canada, the US and Europe and Violent Extremism Risk Assessment Version 2 Revised (VERA-2R), available in Dutch, English, French and German.

Each is presented as a work in progress, within a standard template that allows for some comparison across frameworks, together with an appraisal of their strengths and limitations, informed by the comments of peer reviewers and users.

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