Ecological Threat Report 2021

The Ecological Threat Report (ETR) is a composite index produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace. It measures the ecological threats that countries are currently facing, providing projections to 2050, to better understand the countries most at risk of experiencing significant deteriorations in peace. Calculated at the sub-national level, it identifies the overall ecological threat faced by over 2,500 sub-national administrative units across 178 independent countries and territories.

The ETR is a composite index of five indicators, food risk, water risk, rapid population growth, temperature anomalies and natural disasters, combined into one overall score. The overall ETR score is calculated as the average of the individual ecological threats.

A rapidly changing environment are creating shocks that threaten the stability of countries, create conditions for mass displacement and exacerbate hunger and water stress. The ETR can determine which countries have the most severe threats, the lowest coping capabilities and therefore are most likely to suffer from increased levels of ecological-threat related conflict.

Resilience, or the ability of nations to mitigate and adapt to new ecological threats, is important to ensure the stability of political institutions and prevent future social unrest and violence and it’s of great importance to know where help is needed.

Read and download the Ecological Threat Report